Case study in unpreditability being bad

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05 January 2017

I was reading an HBR article about Why Being Unpredictable Is a Bad Strategy and all I could think about was the Windows 8 debacle.

Leading up to the development and release of Windows 8 Microsoft switched from an open and predictable model to a very closed and secretive model. Sure, they’d waffled back and forth in the years prior to Windows 8, but it wasn’t until that point in their history that they went “entirely dark” about something as important as Windows itself.

Personally I think they were copying Apple, because at that point in time Apple was ascendant with the iPad and Microsoft was worried. The thing is, a secretive model works for Apple because nobody relies on their long-term vision for stability. Their target are consumers, who like fun stuff and care little if things break every couple years.

Microsoft’s primary customer base are small, medium, and large enterprises who spend millions or billions on IT. They don’t like fun, they like predictable roadmaps that minimize cost and risk. The last thing a business wants is a version of Windows that comes out of the blue and breaks all their software, or requires complete retraining of their entire user base.

Worse yet, Microsoft not only increased risk for all of its business customers with Windows 8, they totally cut off all avenues for feedback and improvement of the product until after it was released. After it was too late to address the numerous major issues with the new OS.

Fortunately Windows 10 has been a whole other story. Microsoft not only returned to their original open communication model, but they’ve actually became more open than they’ve ever been in their history. And it shows, in that the business world now has a predictable roadmap, and Windows has never been so closely shaped by real-world customer feedback.

The result is that Windows 10 adoption is proceeding at a rapid pace, and Microsoft is (very so) slowly rebuilding trust with its customers.